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The AUD/USD pair recorded a notable increase of 0.69% during the closing session on Friday, March 14, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar following influential economic data. The U.S. Dollar Index settled at 103.734, impacted by the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which dropped sharply to 54.2 from a previous reading of 64.0, indicating a decline in consumer confidence in the U.S. economy.
Economic Data Highlights:
- Europe: Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February increased by 0.4% after recording -0.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, Spain’s core CPI slowed to 2.2% from 2.4%, potentially influencing the European Central Bank’s monetary policy direction.
- United Kingdom: The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for January contracted by -0.1%, following a previous growth of 0.4%, signaling an economic slowdown.
- Australia: The net speculative positions on the Australian dollar, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), remained unchanged at -48.2K, reflecting continued cautious sentiment despite recent gains.
The performance of the AUD/USD pair remains tied to global economic developments. The Australian dollar may extend its gains if U.S. dollar weakness persists, while external factors such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policies will be crucial in determining the pair’s future direction.
Upcoming Economic Events – Monday, March 17, 2025:
- China: Retail Sales (YoY)
- United States: Core Retail Sales (MoM)
- United States: Retail Sales (MoM)
Technical Analysis of AUD/USD:
This analysis focuses on the candlestick chart of the AUD/USD pair, utilizing supply and demand zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, price trends, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Average Directional Index (ADX), and moving averages.
AUD/USD Price Movement:
According to the chart, the AUD/USD pair is trending upward, testing the 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous downtrend. If it stabilizes below these levels, a downward continuation is expected. The RSI is currently at 63, indicating positive relative strength.
Additionally, the ADX shows a moderate reading of 35, suggesting a medium-strength uptrend at the moment.
Trading Scenarios:
- Sell Opportunity:
- Entry Level: 0.63150
- Target: 0.62700
- Buy Opportunity:
- Entry Level: 0.63400
- Target: 0.63900
Risk Assessment & Conclusion:
This technical analysis is based on price trends, supply and demand levels, moving averages, and RSI indicators, presenting a viable outlook for the trading day. The probability of the projected scenarios materializing ranges between 60% and 70%.
Finally, this analysis serves as an auxiliary tool for traders in making investment decisions. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or engage in any financial transactions. Risk management and cautious trading are advised at all times.
