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The Australian economy reported a decline in new jobs on Thursday morning, revealing a loss of 52,800 jobs in February. This marks the first job loss in Australia since March 2024, and it was worse than market expectations of a gain of 30,800 jobs. The previous reading was also revised downward, from an increase of 44,000 jobs to an increase of 30,500 jobs in December.
This report signals a slowdown in employment in Australia, which reduces pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia and strengthens bets on significant Australian interest rate cuts this year. This report is considered “negative” for the Australian dollar.
Australian Unemployment Rate Stable as Expected in February
The Australian economy also released its unemployment rate on Thursday morning, which remained stable at 4.1% in February, in line with market expectations. This stability at a relatively high level indicates a slowdown in tight labor market conditions, further enhancing the likelihood of an Australian interest rate cut in April.
US Stocks Extend Gains to Close Higher After Fed Decision
US stock indices rose during trading on Wednesday, extending their gains following the Federal Reserve’s statement and its projections of two interest rate cuts this year. The Federal Reserve announced its decision to maintain the interest rate within the range of 4.25% and 4.50%.
US central bank officials stated that economic activity continues to grow at a strong pace and praised the state of the labor market amid a declining unemployment rate. However, the Fed still considers inflation to be somewhat high, emphasizing its continued goal of reducing inflation to 2% in the long term.
Some Fed members expressed uncertainty about the economic outlook, while remaining prepared to intervene and adjust monetary policy if necessary.
In conjunction with the decision, officials updated their interest rate and economic forecasts for this year and until 2027, and adjusted the pace of their bond holdings reduction.
Central bank officials lowered their economic growth forecasts and raised their inflation forecasts. They now expect the economy to grow by only 1.7% this year, down 0.4 percentage points from the last forecast in December. Regarding inflation, core prices are expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous estimate.
The statement showed that interest rate projections remained unchanged from December for the coming years, with the equivalent of two expected cuts in 2026 and another cut in 2027, before the federal funds rate stabilizes at a longer-term level around 3%.
At the close of the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.9% (equivalent to 383 points) to 41,964 points, reaching a high of 42,178 points and a low of 41,613 points.
The broader S&P 500 index climbed by 1.1% (equivalent to 60 points) to 5,675 points, recording a high of 5,715 points and a low of 5,622 points.
The Nasdaq Composite index jumped by 1.4% (about 246 points) to 17,750 points, while reaching a high of 17,917 points and a low of 17,534 points.
Corn Futures Close Higher Amid South American Weather Watch
Corn prices rose during trading on Wednesday at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, driven by technical buying and monitoring of weather conditions in South America.
Corn market investors expect mixed weather conditions in Latin America in the near term across many key agricultural areas.
Domestically in the United States, forecasts indicate an increase in planted acreage. The US Department of Agriculture will release its reports on expected plantings and quarterly grain stocks on the 31st of the month.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that the average ethanol production last week was 1.105 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels from the previous week and 59,000 barrels from last year, with inventories reaching 26.575 million barrels, a decrease of 801,000 barrels from the previous week, but an increase of 566,000 barrels from last year. Average exports were 111,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 51,000 barrels from the previous week and 23,000 barrels from the same period last year.
The soybean market continues to monitor harvesting activity in South America, which is progressing in Argentina and approaching the 75% level in Brazil. The upcoming USDA supply and demand and production report, as well as updated CONAB forecasts for Brazil, will be released on April 10. Brazilian basis levels have exceeded last year’s levels, which may push some non-Chinese companies to the United States. Part of the reason for the slowdown in US soybean exports is attributed to trade tensions with China. Business with Canada, the European Union, and Mexico will also be negatively impacted by the ongoing tariff battle. ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports for March to reach 15.56 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons from its previous estimate.
As for wheat, concerns about dry weather in parts of the US Plains, the Black Sea region, China, and Eastern Europe seem to have been largely priced in, at least for now.
Dry forecasts remain in most of the southern US Plains until the end of the month, while parts of the central US Plains and the eastern Midwest are experiencing a late-season winter storm.
The trade sector is also monitoring the export market, awaiting to see if this week’s US sales figures will exceed last week’s figures, as the USDA’s weekly export sales report will be released on Thursday morning.
The prospect of ending the Russian war on Ukraine remains uncertain. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has maintained its wheat production estimates for the 2025/2026 season at 79.6 million tons, including 54.6 million tons of winter wheat and 25 million tons of spring wheat.
Corn
In trading, corn futures for May delivery rose at settlement by 0.7% to $4.62 per bushel.
Soybeans
Soybean futures for May delivery fell by 0.4% to $10.08 per bushel.
Wheat
Wheat futures for May delivery also decreased by 0.2% to $5.63 per bushel.
